I subscribe to more blogs than I should, but one I read with relative frequency is Fred Wilson's - A VC, Musings of a VC in NYC. I am not alone as he has more than 30,000 such people - an incredible number in the fragmented world of blogs. It's for good reason as he is an incredible thinker, businessman, and judging from his writings, a good human being. From his and others in the blogsphere you realize that he is an A-list networker, has his hands in some of the neatest companies...a one man tipping point.
Many people have advertising on their blogs - it's a natural thing to do, especially when you have the reach and scale he does. More interestingly, what he makes from advertising, he gives to charity. To date, those ads consisted of Google AdSense and the Yahoo equivalent. Today, that started to change as he has joined FM Publishing. His post on FM Publishing got me thinking. As one who spends his days in the online ad space, it's inevitable.
I know very little about FM publishing. With Google and Yahoo we know they use contextual technology to extend their PPC advertisers' reach to the web. Ad Networks such as Advertising.com use statistical optimization with a behavioral layer to select the best ad from a rotation; whereas, a company like Revenue Science uses a purely behavioral approach that can increase earnings for sites by tracking and charging for the value of a specific eyeball not the specific content that eyeball might be on.
In my opinion, FM is in an enviable position - they have the key ingredient to media success, quality content. If I could choose only one of the three main pieces of an ad network to start with - advertisers, publishers, and technology, I'd take the publishers. Which is why I'm fascinated to learn more about a) how FM will use that content lever to generate higher earnings, and b) the underlying philosophy that attracts the A-List bloggers to them versus other ad providers.
FM will surely get premium advertisers but I predict they will struggle to scale. Unlike the other ad companies above, FM is not a technology company nor does it appear to have a technology vision to help it create efficiencies and maximize its content lever. Perhaps it doesn't need to though. It is the person behind the company that is the real lever (A-Lister John Battelle). His network is about the actual network behind the ad network. It's a blue ocean because it doesn't have to compete on the same levels that others in the ad network space do; yet, it will require trust and collaboration if it is to succeed for the long term.
My recommendation for Battelle and FM, focus on building the content piece but partner now with a company that has the ad sales and technology resources to help you realize the vision. Your actual network will give you a good leg up but it mixes business with pleasure that will over time place strain on both and test their limits. Don't pick any company though as it seems that much like Google's "Don't be evil" there is a philosophy behind the network that must be preserved, and any potential partner must commit to following that.
FM = a huge opportunity. I think any in the ad network space see it and admire its position. I know I do; give me those sites and I feel passionate I could sell the crap out of them and build a world class product.
