I had lunch the other day with one of the earliest innovators and monsters of display arbitrage. They didn't know it, but their work fundamentally altered my knowledge of how people make money online. Their work also inspired TheUseful, and by inspire, we really mean, TheUseful copied the business cold and inadvertently began the race the bottom for the first generation of display to email arbitrage businesses.
Those who remember Bonzi Buddy or the Free Prize Package banners have either studied display advertising or more likely, are just old(er). We're also the generation that remembers something else, AOL, not today's AOL but AOL when it was how you connect to the web, and it was the killer application. AOL as the ISP went away once connectivity opened up, but AOL's AIM remained the killer app for quite some time. AIM was how those online lived and breathed communication, but more importantly, it was also the mobile phone killer application. Anyone who worked at Danger or who used the Sidekick could tell you the importance of AIM to their mobile phone life.
A great instant messenger is the key application for unlocking any new medium or device. Blackberry users can attest to this. Corporations adopted Blackberry for different reasons, but communication was still key. That adoption helped unlock the consumer market, as was the case with personal phones. But, what made/makes Blackberry so great for individuals was its version of AIM - Blackberry Messenger aka BBM. But, BBM wasn't the only thing; it was just the most noticeable. The second were the phones themselves - durable beyond durable, pure and wonderful workhorses...the Chevy of phones.
The problem with Blackberry? They are trying to make the painful transition from being Chevy to BMW as opposed to being a better Chevy. My own personal qualm / jump the shark experience. The newer model of the same phone had fewer features than its predecessor. Not only that, they took away key consumer features such as a flash. I know why they did it, but really? Additionally, I just can't see them being serious players in the app marketplace. They may have great phone market share, but that doesn't mean they should try and compete on apps. Back to being good at what you do well. There is a lot Blackberry's still offer that other phones can't and won't. Partnering on something you don't do well isn't a killer.
That Blackberry has just started to advertise BBM hints to me at the challenges they face. Imagine AOL advertising AIM as a reason to use them? A quick scan of the stock price and news suggests all is relatively well with RIMM, but the on the ground evidence suggests they might have peaked. Some of my friends who are early adopters have left Blackberry, even after trying out the iPhone and returning to Blackberry for almost two years. Most troubling are the late adopters that I know who are just about to give up on Blackberry, not for the obvious reason of more apps but because the phones themselves are no longer the reliable workhorses. BBM alone will not be enough to keep them.
The end is by no means near, but cracks in the foundation are visible.
